Economic Uncertainty and the HVAC Industry: How to Stay Cool in Turbulent Times

Tariffs, regulatory changes, supply chain disruptions, and an unpredictable economy. Any one of these challenges can make it difficult to manage a business, let alone a seasonal one. We sat down with FTL’s President, Todd Grzybinski, to get his perspective on economic uncertainty and how to stay focused on your goals and growth.

Financial Challenges HVAC Contractors Face During Times of Economic Uncertainty

“One of the most important challenges,” Todd says, “is demand for products. If there is uncertainty in the economy, big purchases are usually put on hold. This could mean consumers choose to repair rather than to replace units.”

FTL Finance data shows that many consumers are opting to pay for repairs rather than replacing their units. Over 24 months, through December 2024, applications for equipment finished seven percent below the previous year, but service work applications jumped 37 percent during that same time period. “Whether people are financing a repair or a replacement, offering financing is one way to combat this issue,” says Todd.

Most Americans are worried about the U.S. economy, and that drives their behavior. According to the SSRS Economic Attitudes Tracker, 81% of Americans report cutting back on spending. In fact, 67% of Americans across all income brackets, education level, and professions report living paycheck-to-paycheck, so an unexpected expense is not exactly a welcome surprise. Because you never know what a homeowner’s financial situation might be, we encourage you to offer financing to all of your clients.

Lessons Learned from Challenging Times

Todd is no stranger to leading a company through economic uncertainty. With over 20 years as President of FTL, he has weathered some storms, like the 2008 recession and COVID-19. We asked him what he learned from those experiences.

“Discipline,” says Todd. “Stay disciplined and true to your core business values. Do not change course unless you have the data or experience to maneuver through it.”

In terms of changing market conditions, he recommends maintaining a positive cash flow.

“You may want to delay any big expenses or improvements to your facility or equipment that would require lots of cash. Come up with other services that could increase revenue, and if you do not offer financing, find a lender that fits your needs and start offering it.”

If you do offer financing, let customers know! Almost 80% of consumers would like to finance part, if not all, of their home improvement projects.

There are several ways to let homeowners know that you offer financing:

• Advertise it on your website
• Create truck decals or other physical signage
• Include it in your estimates or quotes
• Have a direct conversation with homeowners

Be sure to create a seasonal business budget where you understand your fixed expenses and then use historical data to estimate variable expenses. Don’t just think about the current season or the current year; consider planning for next year too. Setting aside money will help offset any future unplanned increases.

Once you plan your budget, you need to manage it. This includes monitoring your spending, sharing budget goals with your team, and finding efficient ways to use your downtime.

Diversify Your Income to Combat Economic Uncertainty

Tapping into multiple sources of income, like maintenance plans and additional services, protects your business during challenging or slower economic periods.

Offer Maintenance Plans Your company can perform seasonal maintenance and tune-ups for customers’ HVAC systems. Maintenance plans mean more face time with customers and the opportunity to discover potential system issues. Cash naturally comes in more during the summer and winter. With maintenance plans, you’re guaranteed cash flow during shoulder season and can keep your employees busy during those slower periods.

Offer Additional Services Think about services you can provide outside of HVAC installations. This could include duct cleaning and maintenance; energy audits; or air purifier and humidifier installations.

While Todd advises contractors to stay true to their business values, he also warns not to have a “business as usual” or “the economy will turn around, so I’m not going to change anything” mindset. If you pivot and start providing other services or offering financing, you will be ahead of the game when the economy does turn around.

Focus on Business Growth

The HVAC business is a competitive one, but there are many ways to get ahead of the competition - even in a landscape of economic uncertainty.

Start with low-hanging fruit. Follow up on unsold estimates! You can earn as much as 15% annually by following up with homeowners who did not give you an immediate “yes.” We recommend creating a solid sales follow-up process to boost your revenue and build customer relationships.

This is also a good time to focus on brand building. Beyond details such as putting your logo on shirts and trucks, pay special attention to customer service, like responding to reviews or maintaining your social media accounts.

Continue to invest in your employees and create a positive work environment. Happy employees mean happy customers, better reviews, and more business. And isn’t that ultimately the goal?

One way to support your team is by giving them the right digital tools. For example, the Project Estimator tool within FTL’s AppTracker, makes it easier to offer financing to customers and close more deals. Techs can simply add project costs and descriptions in the app, choose a loan plan, and then email or text the estimates to the customer. Project Estimator will show monthly payments for different options, making it easier for homeowners to choose the one that works best for their budget.

Stephen Covey famously said, “If there’s one thing that’s certain in business, it’s uncertainty.” Let FTL Finance help you thrive during times of uncertainty.